NATO should substantially increase its defense commitments including air defenses to the Baltic States to deter Russia’s aggression. This includes financial assistance, conventional military assistance where needed, and cybersecurity protection. In terms of force numbers and armored vehicles, the Baltic states are vastly inferior to Russia. As a result, if Russia conducts a limited war, the damage doubles, making it easy to win. In addition, the Baltic states are geographically isolated from Russia. Russia perceives a growing danger from the West, and it is frantic not to lose any buffer zones. There is a good chance that armed interventions will be carried out.
The Baltic states rely on stronger allies - which is the United States as they cannot defend themselves sufficiently with their current level of commitment. NATO cannot prevent Russian forces from invading Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Eventually, their forces would be destroyed. In response, NATO could mobilize a long war to liberate the Baltic countries but this may require a perilous military campaign suppressing Russia. This shows the significance of NATO’s role in the relations of the two countries, and in the end, whether NATO and Russian forces will be at war will depend on how the competition for power develops in Europe.
NATO’s defense commitments could prevent the causation of Nuclear war as well as asymmetric warfare. Consequently, this prevents many innocent deaths and economic loss. If war broke out and escalated, thousands of civilians could be expected to die and longer-term effects such as the massive destruction of Tallinn may take place.
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